This is Marvel world, and the rest of Hollywood just lives in it. At least, that’s how it seemed this weekend. Deadpool & Wolverine, starring Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, continues to break records and exceed all expectations, debuting with $440 million worldwide and topping $200 million in North America.
Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman will star in ‘Deadpool & Wolverine.’
Source: Marvel
If that wasn’t enough, Marvel Studios President and COO Kevin Feige revealed during the studio’s presentation at San Diego Comic-Con that Robert Downey Jr. will be playing Doctor Doom in the MCU, a presentation that also included other major announcements that underscore the fact that so-called “superhero fatigue” won’t last long.
Going into the weekend, it quickly became clear that Deadpool & Wolverine, from director and co-writer (with Reynolds) Shawn Levy, would far exceed initial expectations of more than $150 million domestically and $360 million worldwide. My own bullish assessment was that it would gross at least $175 million domestically and reach $400 million worldwide (the original projection, based on early ticket sales on Wednesday and Thursday, was $375 million).
Forbes: Deadpool & Wolverine shatters box office records, on track to gross $400 million worldwide in opening weekend. By Mark Hughes
Deadpool & Wolverine handily beat the openings of 2016’s Deadpool and 2018’s Deadpool 2, and amazingly, Deadpool & Wolverine should top those films’ worldwide box office combined (approximately $783 million and $786 million, respectively) by next weekend.
In fact, consider this startling math: With an opening weekend gross of around $440 million and a final multiplier of 2.7x, typical for the franchise, Deadpool & Wolverine would reach nearly $1.2 billion worldwide. But if it instead plays out like a typical popular summer superhero blockbuster, it should see a multiplier of 3x to 3.3x, leading to a final worldwide gross of $1.32 billion to $1.45 billion.
That means if Deadpool & Wolverine stays on track and ends up grossing 3.5x or more, it could surpass $1.5 billion in box office revenue, essentially matching or surpassing the total grosses of the previous two Deadpool films combined.
Forbes Review: Deadpool and Wolverine are box office goldminesBy Mark Hughes
I also believe it’s the buzz surrounding SDCC and Marvel Studios this weekend, the return of Downey, the return of filmmakers the Russo Brothers, and the enthusiastic reaction to the announcement that the two upcoming Avengers sequels will be titled “Avengers: Doomsday” and “Avengers: Secret Wars.”
Remembering why audiences love the MCU, especially with some of their favorite elements about to make a big comeback, the overwhelmingly positive reviews and word of mouth for Deadpool and Wolverine are set to make them a hit: With an “A” rating from audiences on CinemaScore and a 79% Certified Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes, it looks like it’s pretty much in the mix with no notable challengers through September.
Only Borderlands and Alien: Romulus have the potential to attract much of Deadpool & Wolverine’s core demographic and break out, but the former risks stumbling and disappointing, and the latter looks set to finish in the typical range for a modern franchise, probably in the $300-400 million range. As such, I expect Deadpool & Wolverine to continue to outperform expectations toward a higher final multiplier, aiming for $1.4-1.5 billion or more.
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Of course, this will not only please Marvel and the film production teams, but also theatrical companies. There will be some strong releases in the spring, such as Dune Part II, Godzilla vs. Kong: The New Empire, and Kung Fu Panda 4, followed by the early summer movie season with the blockbuster animated sequels Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me, but 2024 will be far from the box office revenues of the same period last year, and last year’s box office revenues are also significantly down from pre-COVID theatrical revenues.
So the bigger the final multiples for Deadpool and Wolverine, the better for everyone, especially Marvel and its competing studios, who need all the help they can get to lure audiences back to multiplexes.
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